PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – Panama Canal is contemplating a further reduction in its daily ship transits due to ongoing water shortages caused by drought conditions. Ilya Espino de Marotta, the canal’s administrator, indicated that the number of vessels passing through could decrease to approximately 29 per day in February or March 2027. Any additional decrease would rely on persistent dry weather and reservoir water levels. The waterway is already approaching a maximum of 32 daily transits starting from Sept. 15.
Capacity reductions by the Panama Canal Authority began after rainfall and watershed inflow fell below expected levels during the wet season. Initially, daily crossings declined to 34 before the planned cut to 32. The canal relies on freshwater stored in Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to operate its locks, with each transit requiring water to raise or lower vessels between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
During fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 transits per day up to June 30. From October to June, it recorded 10,726 crossings, reflecting a 5.2% increase compared to the same period last year. These figures were recorded before worsening rainfall conditions prompted new operational restrictions. Despite these challenges, the canal remains a critical route for container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and other vessels supporting international trade.
Reservoir levels influence daily transit capacity
Long-standing water availability has dictated how many ships can traverse the canal during dry spells. During the severe drought in 2023, daily transits dropped to 22 in December as Gatun Lake reached unusually low levels. Conditions improved with resumed rainfall and water conservation efforts that helped reservoirs recover. Currently, canal managers continuously monitor lake levels, watershed inflows, and precipitation to determine daily operational capacity.
In addition, vessel draft rules have been modified as part of ongoing water management strategies. A proposed reduction of the Neopanamax draft limit to 47.5 feet was not implemented after officials assessed updated reservoir data. The maximum draft remained at 48 feet, influencing how deeply loaded ships sit in the water and potentially affecting cargo capacity passing through the canal.
Fewer transit slots lead to stricter booking procedures
As available daily transit slots diminish, the canal has revised its booking and auction protocols. Auction categories now classify vessels based on cargo type, including container ships, gas carriers, tankers, and bulk vessels. Priority in some Neopanamax allocations is given to full container ships with higher capacity when other factors are equal. The canal encourages vessels without reservations to use the booking system, as confirmed bookings guarantee scheduled transit dates.
No official decision has been announced to reduce the daily transit limit to 29 ships. Espino de Marotta mentioned that this level could be a possible restriction if dry conditions persist into early 2027. Furthermore, the canal is progressing with the Río Indio reservoir project aimed at increasing long-term water storage capacity. Authorities state that this initiative will support canal operations and improve water availability for a significant portion of Panama’s population.