ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty throughout the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this figure in its October 2026 regional economic update. Poverty was assessed based on the international threshold of $3 daily in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points, making the country the primary contributor to the rise in extreme poverty within the MENAAP area.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen collectively represent another 47% of the population living below the $3 threshold across the region. Along with Pakistan, these three nations account for roughly 95% of the region’s extreme poor. Currently, about 14% of the world’s population living in extreme poverty resides in the MENAAP region, which is only surpassed by Sub-Saharan Africa. MENAAP remains the only global region where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to rise.
The poverty situation in Pakistan also worsened at the higher $4.20 daily income threshold used for lower-middle-income economies. The percentage of people below this mark increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25, reaching approximately 48% in 2024 compared to 44.7% in 2018. The regional report cited the COVID-19 pandemic, the floods of 2022, high inflation, currency depreciation, and ongoing economic adjustments as key factors behind the worsening poverty indicators in the country.
Increased poverty levels follow years of economic shocks
A new household survey released earlier in 2026 led to a major revision of the regional poverty estimates. The updated figures for Pakistan boosted MENAAP’s estimated 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added roughly 21 million individuals to the region’s total of those living in extreme poverty. As of September 2026, MENAAP remained one of only two global regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, with Sub-Saharan Africa being the other.
Despite a return to positive growth, Pakistan’s economy continues to grapple with high poverty levels. The latest projections indicate a GDP growth of 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% for 2026, with an increase to 8.2% projected for 2027. Consequently, inflation in 2027 is expected to surpass the 2026 estimate even amid ongoing economic expansion.
Changes in regional classification impact poverty comparisons
The 48% share also reflects a statistical adjustment that altered regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank shifted Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia to the MENAAP reporting group within its statistical system. Pakistan’s government clarified that this administrative change did not modify the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the new grouping affected regional poverty figures because Pakistan’s large population was now included in MENAAP calculations, influencing how poverty shares across regions are presented.
The October update also highlighted weaker economic conditions across MENAAP in 2026, projecting a contraction of 2.1% after a 3.3% growth in 2025. Several economies faced challenges from conflicts and disruptions to energy, logistics, and trade. However, developing oil-importing countries, including Pakistan, showed relative resilience, with an expected growth rate of 4.3% in 2026. Rising food and energy prices continued to exert pressure on household purchasing power across multiple nations.